The relationship between the United States and India has always been layered—marked by cooperation, occasional tension, and high-stakes negotiations. Recently, former Indian diplomat KP Fabian made waves by pointing out that US President Donald Trump is beginning to soften his tone toward India and Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Fabian’s comments offer important insights into why Trump’s aggressive tactics didn’t work, what this means for US-India ties, and how both sides may move forward. Let’s break it down.
Why Trump’s Initial Approach Didn’t Work
When Trump imposed massive tariffs on Indian goods - raising them up to 50% in retaliation for India’s purchase of Russian oil - he expected New Delhi to bend under pressure. Instead, India held its ground.
Key reasons why the strategy failed:
- Tariffs didn’t bite as expected: India’s economy absorbed the shock better than Washington anticipated.
- India’s energy independence: Buying Russian oil wasn’t a negotiable point for India - it was about national interest and energy security.
- Civilizational identity: As Fabian noted, India is a “civilisational state” that values sovereignty. It refuses to take orders but seeks solid collaborations.
- No quick concessions: Unlike smaller economies, India had the leverage and confidence to push back.
Trump’s playbook of using trade pressure to extract concessions worked with some countries but backfired with India.
Ex-Diplomat KP Fabian’s Key Observations
Fabian summarized Trump’s miscalculation in plain terms:
- Trump thought tariffs would push India into compliance.
- Instead, India doubled down, refusing to “surrender.”
- Trump is now realizing the misstep and adjusting his tone.
Fabian even coined the phrase “Triple T - Trumped-up Trump Tariff” to highlight how baseless the policy seemed from India’s perspective.
Signs of Trump Softening His Stance
Despite keeping tariffs in place, Trump’s recent words show a shift in attitude.
- He called US-India ties a “very special relationship.”
- Modi said in a heartfelt response that he "deeply appreciates and fully reciprocates" the sentiment.
This diplomatic exchange signals that, while tensions remain, both leaders see the value in keeping relations positive.
The Bigger Picture: Why India Won’t Be Pressured
India’s stance here reflects its broader foreign policy philosophy.
- Strategic independence: India has no interest in being locked into either US or rival power camps.
- Balanced partnerships: It wants to cooperate with all global players while protecting national interests.
- Non-negotiable sectors: Areas like agriculture and domestic industry remain red lines in trade talks.
Former envoy Jawed Ashraf emphasized this further: India doesn’t need to choose between camps or rely on “crutches” in external relationships.
Lessons from Trump’s Missteps
So what can policymakers, businesses, and even ordinary observers take away from this episode?
1. Misreading India’s resilience
Assuming India would buckle under pressure underestimated its economic and political willpower.
2. Overreliance on trade tariffs
Tariffs can be a useful tool but aren’t a silver bullet - especially with a partner like India that has multiple global alliances.
3. Ignoring cultural and civilizational pride
For India, sovereignty isn’t just politics - it’s tied to national identity. Attempts at dictation almost always trigger pushback.
4. Short-term tactics vs. long-term strategy
Quick wins may appeal to domestic politics, but lasting partnerships require trust and respect.
Practical Advice for Building Stronger US-India Relations
For the relationship to flourish, both sides need to adjust. Here’s what could work:
- Engage in real dialogue: Negotiations should be about finding common ground, not applying brute pressure.
- Respect sovereignty: Acknowledge India’s right to make independent decisions on trade, defense, and energy.
- Expand cooperation areas: Beyond trade, strengthen ties in tech, climate action, defense, and education.
- Concentrate on common values: democracy, the rule of law, and economic expansion are all pillars of society.
- Long-term involvement: produces better results than short-term coercion, so patience pays off.
Why This Moment Matters
The US and India are natural partners. Both are large democracies with global influence, and their cooperation is crucial for:
- Regional security in Asia
- Countering global threats like terrorism
- Advancing innovation in technology and healthcare
- Building resilient supply chains
If the Trump administration truly shifts gears, it could pave the way for a more constructive, forward-looking partnership.
The Domestic Angle: Why Trump Needed to Soften
One overlooked factor is domestic politics in the US. Trump’s trade policies often had a dual audience - foreign governments and American voters. By taking a hard stance, he positioned himself as a defender of US industry. But when tariffs didn’t yield results with India, continuing the same approach risked looking ineffective.
So softening his tone achieved two things:
- It preserved goodwill with India, an increasingly important partner.
- It avoided the narrative that Trump’s policies were failing outright.
This recalibration is as much about optics at home as it is about diplomacy abroad.
India’s Calculated Response
Trump's softer tone prompted an equally calculated response from Prime Minister Modi. By reciprocating Trump’s cordial comments without overcommitting, India sent a clear message:
- India values the partnership but will not rush into concessions.
- Modi made sure India appeared helpful but not obedient by striking a balance between diplomacy and firmness on tariffs.
- By highlighting the “positive and forward-looking Comprehensive and Global Strategic Partnership,” Modi placed focus on the broader relationship, not just trade friction.
This is classic Indian diplomacy - measured, respectful, but resolute.
Historical Context: US-India Trade Tensions
This isn’t the first time the two countries have sparred over trade. Some examples:
- 1990s IT boom: The US pushed for stronger intellectual property protections, while India resisted opening certain markets.
- 2000s nuclear deal: Cooperation deepened, but trade remained contentious, particularly in pharmaceuticals and agriculture.
- Obama years: Despite warm ties, issues like visas for Indian professionals and outsourcing created friction.
What this shows is that trade disagreements are a constant, but they rarely derail the overall trajectory of US-India relations.
Conclusion: A Reset in the Making?
Trump’s softened tone doesn’t erase the challenges still on the table - tariffs remain high, trade talks are stalled, and disagreements linger. But what it does show is recognition. Recognition that India won’t bend under pressure, and recognition that a cooperative path is smarter than confrontation.
As KP Fabian rightly put it, India wants friendship and business with everyone but won’t accept dictation. That’s the lens through which future US policy needs to be shaped.
Whether Trump's statements result in significant action will become clear in the upcoming months. For now, one thing is clear: the US-India partnership is too important to be defined by tariffs alone.
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