Donald Trump Warns: India, Russia Now Backing China
Introduction
Former US President Donald Trump has stirred up the global political conversation once again. "Looks like we've lost India and Russia to deepest, darkest China," Trump wrote in a recent post on his Truth Social platform. I hope their future together is filled with success and longevity.
His comments were made soon after Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Tianjin. The summit showcased cooperation among the three countries in areas ranging from energy to security - sending a clear message that their alignment is deepening at a time when relations with Washington remain strained.
This statement marks Trump’s sharpest acknowledgment yet that New Delhi and Moscow may be tilting closer toward Beijing, reshaping the balance of global power. But what exactly does this mean for the US, and why is Trump sounding the alarm? Let’s break it down.
Trump’s Claim: “We’ve Lost India and Russia”
Trump's remarks are a reflection of growing worries that, in spite of Washington's efforts to keep them on its side, Russia and India are choosing closer ties with China.
- Energy cooperation: Russia supplying discounted crude oil to India and strengthening its energy deals with China.
- Security discussions: Expanding regional security talks without US involvement.
- Connectivity and trade: New initiatives to avoid dollar-based transactions and trade routes dominated by the West.
For decades, Washington has viewed India as a natural counterbalance to China’s rise. Both Democratic and Republican administrations invested heavily in this partnership. During his first term, Trump himself praised Indian ties, most notably at the Houston "Howdy Modi" rally in 2019.
Yet, the geopolitical climate today looks very different.
Why India Is Leaning Toward Strategic Autonomy
India has traditionally pursued a non-aligned strategy, carefully balancing relations with major powers. The Tianjin summit highlights how Prime Minister Modi is sticking to this approach - engaging with Xi and Putin while keeping a working partnership with the US.
Key reasons India is tilting toward autonomy:
- Border tensions with China: The 2020 Galwan Valley clash left deep scars, but India is choosing diplomacy alongside deterrence.
- Energy security: Discounted Russian crude oil has been a lifeline for India’s growing energy needs.
- Global south leadership: India wants to be seen as a leader of developing nations, not simply an ally of the US.
- Tariffs from the US: Trump’s heavy tariffs on Indian goods, plus additional levies targeting its Russian oil imports, have strained economic ties.
India is making it clear: it won’t align blindly with any one bloc.
Russia’s Calculated Pivot Toward China
Russia’s growing dependence on China isn’t surprising. Since the war in Ukraine, Moscow has been isolated from Western markets and financial systems. China has become its largest trading partner, buying oil, gas, and military technology.
By fortifying relations with India, Russia establishes a triangle of collaboration that lessens the impact of Western sanctions and increases resistance to pressure from the US.
Trump’s frustration comes from the fact that, despite Washington’s efforts, Moscow’s alignment with Beijing seems irreversible. And India’s willingness to maintain energy trade with Russia further complicates US strategy.
How Trump’s Trade Policies Pushed India Away
During his presidency, Trump repeatedly argued that India had an unfair advantage in trade. His administration imposed tariffs that still remain among the steepest placed on any US partner:
- 25% reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods.
- India will have to pay an extra 25% tax on Russian oil imports.
- That adds up to a 50% tariff wall, which is crippling for exporters from India.
Trump claimed the relationship was “totally one-sided” and insisted that India bought most of its oil and military products from Russia instead of the US.
But here’s the thing: these policies weakened Washington’s leverage. Rather than pulling New Delhi closer, they gave India more reason to diversify partnerships and strengthen ties with Moscow and Beijing.
The Energy Flashpoint
Energy has become the most contentious issue in this triangular dynamic.
- India’s side: It argues that buying Russian crude at discounted prices helps secure affordable energy for its population of 1.4 billion.
- US criticism: Trump and other American leaders accuse India of indirectly funding Moscow’s war in Ukraine.
- Counterargument: India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has pointed out that Europe and China continue to import massive amounts of Russian energy, yet the US criticizes only India.
In New Delhi, people are aware of this double standard.
What This Means for the US-China Rivalry
If India, Russia, and China deepen their cooperation, the US faces a serious challenge:
- Western sanctions are being diluted because Russia can continue to exist by selling energy to China and India.
- Weakening of US influence in Asia: India was seen as the cornerstone of America’s Indo-Pacific strategy. Losing its strong alignment undermines the Quad (US, India, Japan, Australia).
- Alternative trade systems: The three nations are already exploring transactions outside the dollar, which could erode US economic dominance.
Trump’s blunt warning highlights this geopolitical reality: Washington may no longer be able to count on India or Russia as reliable partners against China.
Practical Lessons for US Policymakers
Trump’s outburst, while politically charged, carries a message for current and future US leaders. To avoid pushing key nations further into China’s orbit, Washington must:
- Tariffs should be reconsidered because punitive trade policies push allies to find other options.
- Respect strategic autonomy: India doesn’t want to be anyone’s pawn. Recognizing that reality is crucial.
- Offer better energy deals: Competing with discounted Russian oil through technology transfers and cleaner energy partnerships could help.
- Rebuild trust: High-level diplomacy, consistent policies, and long-term engagement matter more than one-off rallies or photo-ops.
Conclusion
Although it may sound dramatic, Donald Trump's claim that the US has "lost India and Russia to deepest, darkest China" reflects genuine worries. The SCO summit symbolized shifting alliances and the growing confidence of nations choosing strategic autonomy over strict alignment with Washington.
India is not “choosing China” outright - it is choosing itself, its energy security, and its independent path. Russia, meanwhile, has little choice but to pivot toward Beijing after its fallout with the West.
For the US, the challenge is clear: adapt to this multipolar world or risk losing influence further. Trump’s words may sting, but they serve as a wake-up call that global power is no longer shaped by American pressure alone.
0 Comments