A Crossroads for India's Foreign Policy: Putin's Oil, Xi's Outreach, and Trump's Rebuke
For years, India has tried to play the role of a balancing power - keeping one hand in Washington, another in Moscow, while never losing sight of Beijing. The idea was simple: by avoiding a permanent alliance with any single bloc, Delhi could maximize its influence and protect its autonomy.
That balancing act is now facing real stress. With Donald Trump back in Washington and openly criticizing India’s oil purchases from Russia, with Beijing extending a hand of dialogue despite lingering mistrust, and with Moscow still central to India’s energy security, Delhi’s foreign policy looks more fragile than confident.
India’s Tradition of Strategic Autonomy
Indian diplomacy has always leaned on the principle of “strategic autonomy.” Successive governments, from Nehru to Modi, have resisted being tied down by alliances. Instead, Delhi prefers flexible partnerships that allow it to engage competing powers on its own terms.
This approach explains why India is part of the US-led Quad, sits in the Russia- and China-backed Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), and still builds smaller coalitions such as I2U2 (India, Israel, UAE, US) or the India-France-UAE trilateral. The message is consistent: India wants options, not obligations.
The Trump Shock: Ally to Critic
During his first term, Trump embraced India as a key partner in countering China. This time, the tone is harsher. His administration has imposed fresh tariffs on Indian goods and accused Delhi of indirectly funding Russia’s war machine through cheap oil purchases.
For India, this criticism stings. The United States is its largest export market, and Washington’s support has been crucial in positioning India as a global tech and manufacturing hub. A prolonged tariff war could damage that progress. Yet, India is unwilling to cut off discounted Russian crude, which helps control inflation and keep energy costs low at home.
This tension underlines the central dilemma: India needs America’s markets and technology, but also Russia’s oil and defense ties.
Beijing: Threat and Opportunity
No relationship troubles Delhi more than its ties with China. The memory of the 2020 Galwan clashes still looms large, and India’s military build-up along the border reflects the enduring mistrust. Yet, trade tells a different story. Despite political turmoil, China remains India's largest import supplier, and the $99 billion trade deficit highlights the gap.
Recently, however, signals from Beijing have shifted. Chinese diplomats in Delhi criticized US tariffs on Indian goods and called Washington a “bully.” Foreign Minister Wang Yi, during a visit to India, urged the two sides to see each other as “partners” rather than adversaries.
Prime Minister Modi’s scheduled trip to Beijing is therefore being watched closely. Is it a sign of a real thaw or just a tactical pause? Most analysts believe India is not seeking a friendship but simply buying time and managing risks.
Russia: Energy and Old Ties
While Washington complains, Delhi has doubled down on oil from Russia. The reason is straightforward: affordable energy is vital for India’s growth. Moscow has also long been a defense partner, even if India now diversifies suppliers and invests in indigenous production.
But energy is not the only factor. India worries that if it distances itself from Russia, Moscow will slide even further into Beijing’s embrace, leaving Delhi with less leverage. Maintaining warm ties with Russia is thus not just about oil but about keeping a foothold in the shifting Moscow-Beijing dynamic.
Ambition vs. Capacity
- India’s aspirations are global, but its capabilities are still catching up. Its $4 trillion economy makes it the fifth largest in the world, but still a fraction of China’s $18 trillion or America’s $30 trillion. Militarily, India remains dependent on imports for high-tech weaponry, despite ambitious self-reliance campaigns.
- This mismatch explains India’s cautious diplomacy. It cannot afford a complete break with any of the big powers - not the US, not China, and not Russia. For now, hedging remains less a choice than a necessity.
Navigating Multiple Blocs
India’s presence in multiple groupings is not accidental. The Quad reflects its alignment with democracies in the Indo-Pacific. The SCO allows it to stay in the room with China and Russia. For food and technology security, I2U2 enlists partners from the US and the Middle East.
Each grouping offers India different benefits. Taken together, they give Delhi a degree of flexibility - but also expose it to conflicting expectations.
Competing Visions: Washington vs. Autonomy
- Policy experts disagree on what India should do next. Some, like Ashley Tellis of the Carnegie Endowment, argue that Delhi should stop hedging and build a privileged partnership with Washington, since only the US can counterbalance China.
- Others, such as former ambassador Nirupama Rao, think that India's greatest strength is its adaptability. In her view, India is “a titan in chrysalis,” too large and ambitious to be bound by alliances. Strategic ambiguity, she argues, is not weakness but freedom of action.
What Comes Next?
So, what path will India take?
Most likely, it will continue its current balancing act. Strategic patience has worked before - India endured American sanctions after its 1998 nuclear tests, only to sign a landmark civilian nuclear deal with Washington less than a decade later.
Today, the stakes are higher, but the logic remains the same: absorb the short-term pain, keep options open, and bet that circumstances will shift again.
Conclusion: A Delicate Balance
India’s foreign policy is under pressure from all sides. Trump’s rebuke threatens trade, Xi’s outreach tests the limits of rapprochement, and Putin’s oil remains both a lifeline and a source of friction with Washington.
What this really means is that India is still not in a position to dictate terms. It is managing contradictions, not resolving them. That may look messy, but for now, it may be the only realistic path.
India’s wager is simple: time is on its side. With continued economic growth and greater self-reliance, it hopes to one day act not just as a balancer, but as a power in its own right. Until then, strategic patience - even if painful - will define India’s place in the world.
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